Carnegie Moscow Center
Over the next few years, the European Union will have to revamp its neighborhood policies completely. The ambition is not only to prevent state failure, but to help build functional political systems that can strive economically, provide essential services, guard individual freedoms, and maintain social peace.
Ukraine is not a cause, but a symbol of the serious and deepening crisis between the United States with its allies and Russia. As this crisis may become a permanent state, it is time for permanent crisis management.
The Ukrainian government retains the prerogative to exclude violators of public trust from further government service while new political and economic institutions are built. It remains to be seen how lustration and anti-corruption laws will be implemented.
Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Ukraine have made it clear that Ukraine’s political life is quite diverse, and voters are not partial to “united” solutions. A lower turnout also suggests that Ukrainians are increasingly tired of their politics.
The Ukrainian crisis has shown to the South Caucasian states that deciding between European and Eurasian integration comes at a high price, but that indecisiveness is an even worse path.
The biggest current dangers for Moldova lie not in the unresolved Transnistria conflict, but in domestic Moldovan politics.
With less than a week left until the Ukrainian parliamentary elections, there is growing uncertainty about whether the new parliament will provide a boost to President Petro Poroshenko's flagging reform agenda and attempts to manage the extremely fragile situation in the east.
The old Soviet “enemies-are-everywhere” mentality frequently leads Russian decision makers to losses and defeat.
If Ukraine is allowed to become a failed state, the consequences for Europe will be serious, even dire. Making sure that Ukraine keeps itself warm this winter is an absolutely necessary step.
Forthcoming elections give Ukraine a feeling of hope. However, for most Ukrainians the optimistic political advertisements contrast sharply with their own experiences. The war in the Donbas and the worsening economic and social situation are likely to bring more people to the parliament with no appetite for dialogue.