Carnegie Moscow Center
The United States sees Iran’s nuclear program as the biggest threat to security and insists on international sanctions. Iran argues that its program is exclusively peaceful and threatens to withdraw from the NPT if pressed. Will the international community pick up arms, or will it allow Teheran to achieve the full fuel cycle, under IAEA watch? That choice will determine regional and global security.
The Iran nuclear deal is important not just because of what it achieves, but also as a model for potential future agreements. It tests an approach whereby the United States concludes an agreement with a rogue state, while the implementation of that agreement is secured by a multilateral format.
As was the case in 2006 and 2010, perceptions of Iranian intransigence in the face of constructive Western overtures—which may well be forthcoming under the Biden administration—could lead to a hardening of Russia’s stance, which is ultimately underpinned by concerns of nonproliferation and the integrity of the P5+1 process.
The U.S.-Iran crisis of January 2020 did not lead to a major war in the Middle East, but it did reveal a number of new trends reshaping the world order.
Russia and Iran should talk more about how they interpret each other’s interests, adjust these interpretations and avoid misinterpretations in the future.
The Iranian nuclear deal may have created a useful precedent for Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty member states to strengthen the global nuclear nonproliferation system.
The 2016 elections to the Iranian parliament and Assembly of Expert definitely brought, at least, nominal changes in the political landscape of the country. Yet, the potential impact of these changes on the future development of the country will probably be limited.
At the moment, Russia and Iran remain partners in Syria, but their cooperation will be limited.
Once a nuclear deal is in place, the United States must focus on holding Tehran accountable.
Three organizing principles to guide the use of American power in a fragmented world.