Tension Escalates over Iranian Nuclear Program

The news emerged on September 25, 2009, that Iran has a second uranium enrichment site. Just a couple of days later, on September 27-28, Iran tested missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Carnegie Moscow Center expert Alexei Arbatov commented on these developments on the radio station Ekho Moskvy.

“Iran looks to be seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. If there were still any doubts on this point, the news about the second uranium enrichment plant largely dispels them. The fact of the matter is that uranium enrichment plants are dual-technology installations that can be used for peaceful and for military purposes. The first plant in Natanz and the second plant together give Iran the capability to manufacture a nuclear weapon in a very short space of time, if the political decision is taken.
With just one plant, it would take them around a year to do this, but with two plants they would need less than 6 months. It could take them just a few months, depending on the number of centrifuges they install at the plants... This, of course, leaves no room for doubt even for those who take a friendly stance towards Iran. It’s not the second plant alone that matters, but other reasons as well, the fact that Iran secretly built another plant when its first plant had already caused such a huge fuss and resulted in five UN Security Council resolutions, three of which imposed sanctions on Iran precisely for hiding the existence of its plant. And now it turns out that it was hiding not just one, but two plants. Who knows, many would say that perhaps it is hiding a third and fourth as well.
...I think this will change our [Russia’s] stance [on Iran]. I would name a second factor, too. Iran does not have enough nuclear power stations to warrant the construction of enrichment plants. This is like building a whole oil refinery for the sake of a single petrol station. It’s absurd. Iran has no use for all of this capacity except the manufacture of nuclear weapons, if such a decision is taken.
I think the world will not let Iran make nuclear weapons... and will not even let Iran build an enrichment plant of the kind that would make it possible to produce a nuclear weapon within a month.”

Full version of the program with Alexei Arbatov’s participation (in Russian)

See also:
Materials on Iran on the Carnegie Endowment's site 
Dmitri Trenin “Untangling Iran’s Nuclear Web”