Carnegie Moscow Center
Armenia and Turkey have a chance to move forward from their troubled past by ratifying the historic protocols signed in October 2009. While the governments in both Yerevan and Ankara face strong opposition to the protocols, a failure to ratify the agreement could have disastrous consequences for the entire region.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan-Russia presidential summit in Sochi is unlikely to change the situation with Karabakh, but may reignite the stagnated negotiation process. Russian involvement is key to its presence in the Caucasus.
By combining the posts of presidential envoy and deputy prime minister for the newly created North Caucasus Federal District, the Kremlin is taking strong political measures to end the violence in the North Caucasus.
The Republic of Dagestan is becoming increasingly unstable, partially caused by a Russian policy of neglect, appointing only leaders loyal to Moscow. Severe economic problems and radical Islam also contribute to the violence.
The appointment of Khloponin as envoy for the new North Caucasus Federal District is an attempt by Moscow to tackle growing instability in the region. But while Khloponin has strong business credentials, he lacks experience in federal governance.
Turkey and Armenia signed historic protocols on October 10 to restore diplomatic ties and open shared borders. Although the deal must still be ratified by their respective parliaments, it marks the first step in resolving tensions stemming from the killing of Armenians under Ottoman rule in 1915.
Russia retains interests throughout the post-Soviet regions, but Moscow’s considerable influence is no longer dominant.
The upsurge of violence in Russia's North Caucasus region is the result of the incompetence of local authorities and the Kremlin’s failure or reluctance to seriously address the issues of the region.
A suicide bomb attack that killed 19 people and wounded at least 58 in Ingushetia was likely intended as retaliation for President Yevkurov’s determination to intensify his fight against Islamic extremists.
Questions remain whether Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov ordered the recent murders of human rights activists in Chechnya, or whether the crimes were an attempt by his opponents to discredit his leadership.